Whenever I tell someone about my idea for a new baseball statistic, the answer is pretty much the same: it’s not possible. Every statistic that could possibly be gathered and compiled already is. And yet there is a very useful statistic which, in fact, is not gathered, not by ESPN, not by the Elias Sports Bureau, or anyone else that I know of. I call it Secondary Slugging Percentage.
The game of baseball is about, as the name implies, bases. Success in hitting means that baserunners advance. How many times have you heard an announcer say that a groundball to second with a man on second, although statistically useless, was actually an important contribution to the team’s success? Well that is what Secondary Slugging Percentage is.
Slugging percentage is the number of total bases the hitter advances divided by his at-bats. Secondary slugging percentage is the number of total bases the hitter advances other runners divided by at-bats. Let’s say you hit a single with a man on first. He goes to second. Then you get one “advanced runner” and that goes into your secondary slugging percentage. But let’s say you hit a long single, or hit a single on a hit-and-run, and your runner goes from first to third: that’s more valuable to your team, and consequently you get two “advanced runners.”
This statistic hence usefully distinguishes between more and less valuable hits. A single with no one on is not as valuable to a team as single with runners on first and second. That is reflected in a batter’s secondary slugging percentage. If both runners move up one base, you get 2 AR. But if one scores, the other going to second, you get 3 AR. If one scores and the other goes to third, you have 4 AR, because good offenses are made of such hits, which are extremely valuable to a team. Similarly, almost anything you do with the bases loaded to advance runners is good. Successful offenses take advantage of bases-loaded situations. Hence a sacrifice fly gives you 1 AR; a sac fly where two runners move up gives you 2; a single where all the runners move up is 3; a two-run single 4; a two-run double 5; a bases-clearing double 6. 6 is the largest number of AR you can get in any one hit: clearing the bases.
This gives you a very good measure of how valuable a player’s hits are. Added with total bases (TB), this gives you a very good idea of how much offensive production is actually in one’s hits. A two-run single, with AR and TB combined, is more important than a solo home run. And that would be measured. Indeed, the greater importance of all hits with men on base becomes visible with this statistic.
This statistic also measures the usefulness of a player’s outs. A sacrifice bunt is accounted for in our statistics. But a well-placed ground ball, which can be just as valuable, or a deep fly ball, is not. This statistic accounts for all that.
We can also give players a negative value when baserunners are erased because of their hits. Grounding into a double play with a man on first would give you a -1 in your AR.
Wouldn’t it be interesting for MLB or Elias to pick up this statistic? Wouldn’t it be interesting to find out which players in the major league move runners up best? There may be some surprises: perhaps those players who don’t quite have the gaudy statistics but everyone has always been saying are truly valuable – the number two hitters who move runners over, the clutch hitter who always comes through with men on base – will
finally get some recognition for their success in the fundamental task in baseball: advancing runners.
While we’re at it, we may as well take the next step. Someone will say, “this statistic is not pure, because it favors batters who come up with men on base.” If you never get an at-bat with a man on base, your SSP will be .000, even if you hit a home run every time you come up. Fair enough. We can also measure Advancing Runners Effectiveness (ARE). I presume we have computers powerful enough to do this.
Every at-bat would have to be assigned its maximum value based on the number of bases which a batter could advance the other runners. Again, the maximum is 6 (bases loaded). A runner on third means the maximum value is 1 (you can only advance him one base). A runner on first has a maximum value of 3. You can then keep track of Potential Advanced Runners (PAR). Divide PAR by AR, and you have your Advancing Runners Effectiveness.
Let me give you an example. Take two hitters, A and B, each with four at bats. This is what they do:
A: bases loaded, single, all advance one base: 3 AR / 6 PAR
man on 2nd, strikeout: 0 AR / 2 PAR
man on 1st, GIDP: -1 AR / 3 PAR
bases loaded, struck out 0 AR / 6 PAR
B: man on 1st, walked: 1 AR / 3 PAR
man on 2nd, grounded, out, runner advances 1 AR / 2 PAR
man on 3rd, run-scoring single 1 AR / 1 PAR
man on 1st, sac bunt 1 AR / 3 PAR
Player A, in your boxscore, looked to have had an all right game: after all, he did have a hit and an RBI. But in terms of advancing runners, he was only 2 for 17. He could have done much more for his team that day. Player B had an RBI too, but was much more useful in general: 4 for 9. I will note that this statistic is particularly useful because it also distinguishes between which bases you advance runners: when you advance a runner from first to second, you get a 1 for 3 (.333), but when you advance a runner from third to home, you get a 1 for 1 (1.000).
One Comment