I come down from my cabin to internet life here in the valley to find some real world news since last I checked, coming from Iran. A stolen election – I see no need to discuss this overmuch, it’s clearly something the Iranian government would willingly do, and there’s evidence enough already – and hundreds of thousands of people emerging to protest the theft. Iran appears to be at a critical moment. That this tumult will bring down the regime is unlikely – religious ideology is enduring, and modern weapons have a terrifying coercive power. But the people who are protesting already knew that, and this has not diminished their numbers. They may have the right leader in Mousavi as well, a man who makes moderation and reform seem attractive. He has none of the belligerent and mildly idiotic showmanship of Ahmadinejad.
Obama’s Cairo speech and Mideast trip was obviously timed for the Iranian election, and it is interesting to speculate how much having an intelligent, mature leader in America – one who came talking peace and engagement – made Ahmadinejad look even more outdated and puny. American politics probably play a relatively small role in Iran, but in crises, small things can alter the entire course of events. Here’s hoping that this moment can put a stamp on Obama’s presidency the way the fall of the Berlin wall did for the first Bush. Obama certainly seems destined to have an interesting term.
4 Comments