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First Presidential Debate Reaction

28-Sep-08

       I will confess that I enjoyed listening to the debate – I found both men refreshingly intelligent.  McCain oozed competence and experience, in a way I found impressive (he’s been to Waziristan?!), and even surprising, after how intellectually dishonest his campaign has been.  In fact, in all, I think McCain “won” – he sounded more comfortable, more competent, more experienced, etc.  He zinged Obama a lot, and made Obama defend himself a great portion of the time.  In general, I find Obama’s hands-off approach to debates unimpressive.
       I was disappointed that both men seemed to believe that the U.S. can & should fix all the world’s problems – goodness gracious, can we really fix Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, etc. without fixing Gary Indiana or Poughkeepsie or Detroit or our own Georgia?  McCain struck me as definitely more militaristic in his fix-the-world mode, and I hope the country as a whole doesn’t think that’s the answer.  On the other hand, McCain has a lot of “father energy” – when he says that he will “take care of the troops,” you believe him, and feel that he has an emotional connection to the position of commander in chief that Obama simply does not have.
       On the bailout & economy, McCain really has bought the whole trickle-down thing, which I found terrifying, but Obama sounded fairly accepting of the bailout as well.  You can imagine my position – let them fail, let them fail, let them fail.  Seven hundred billion dollars for the wealthiest people in this country is just theft.  Businesses fail sometimes – big ones and little ones.
       I heard the debate on radio, which may affect how the whole thing felt.

The Strange Recurrence of Failure

28-Sep-08

            The desire for success is one of those traits that seem natural enough to a human being, and I have been convinced that this desire is laudable in myself because I have baptized it, by defining success as service to others.

            And yet I find in my life a continual thwarting of it, a scuttling of such hopes, which make me wonder whether this desire is in fact contrary to the will of the whole.

            Recently I experienced a minor instance of the phenomenon as it occurs in my life.  A friend of mine travels with a ball and a couple of baseball gloves in the trunk of his car.  When I came to visit him, we had a catch together at a farm where he was working over the summer.  As I drove home later that day, I looked in the passenger seat and saw: I still had his glove.  Typical.

            But I figured I could turn this forgetfulness into something good.  I had noted that he had not oiled his baseball gloves, which surprised me, because he was a very handy, very capable man who knew how to take care of things.  I had neat’s-foot oil at home.  I could oil up the glove and give it back to him in better shape than I borrowed it.

            I oiled the glove successfully, tied it up, and put it in a little roofed extension to my house.  Usually you leave a glove for a few days to let the oil dry and the pocket form.

            When I untied the glove a few days later, the leather looked beautiful: darker and richer and more supple.  It would be in good shape for years to come now.  But I gave a little cry when I saw: the leather threading between the fingers had been destroyed.  It was a different color from the rest, and at first I thought that perhaps it was a synthetic that somehow dissolved in neat’s-foot oil.  But as I inspected it, I saw the oil couldn’t have done this damage (the threading was leather).  What had done it was a mouse: he had come and eaten the rawhide.

            The threading of a glove is very difficult to repair.  I didn’t have the tools to do it.  And all my seeming goodness to my friend had evaporated: I had desired to do good for him, and instead had done only damage.  Perhaps I should have foreseen this damage: I live in a rural house, and once I had put a canvas bag in the extension, and a mouse had nibbled its edges.  But I didn’t think of it: a glove is not canvas, and mice typically came into the house during the winter. 

            And this I find to be true in my life generally: every time I try to justify my existence in any way, try to wash away my sin and make something good of it, some mouse comes along and mars what I have done, and the situation is worse than when I started.    

 

A New Statistic: Secondary Slugging Percentage

28-Sep-08

            Whenever I tell someone about my idea for a new baseball statistic, the answer is pretty much the same: it’s not possible.  Every statistic that could possibly be gathered and compiled already is.  And yet there is a very useful statistic which, in fact, is not gathered, not by ESPN, not by the Elias Sports Bureau, or anyone else that I know of.  I call it Secondary Slugging Percentage.

            The game of baseball is about, as the name implies, bases.  Success in hitting means that baserunners advance.  How many times have you heard an announcer say that a groundball to second with a man on second, although statistically useless, was actually an important contribution to the team’s success?  Well that is what Secondary Slugging Percentage is.

            Slugging percentage is the number of total bases the hitter advances divided by his at-bats.  Secondary slugging percentage is the number of total bases the hitter advances other runners divided by at-bats.  Let’s say you hit a single with a man on first.  He goes to second.  Then you get one “advanced runner” and that goes into your secondary slugging percentage.  But let’s say you hit a long single, or hit a single on a hit-and-run, and your runner goes from first to third: that’s more valuable to your team, and consequently you get two “advanced runners.”

            This statistic hence usefully distinguishes between more and less valuable hits.  A single with no one on is not as valuable to a team as single with runners on first and second.  That is reflected in a batter’s secondary slugging percentage.  If both runners move up one base, you get 2 AR.  But if one scores, the other going to second, you get 3 AR.   If one scores and the other goes to third, you have 4 AR, because good offenses are made of such hits, which are extremely valuable to a team.  Similarly, almost anything you do with the bases loaded to advance runners is good.  Successful offenses take advantage of bases-loaded situations.  Hence a sacrifice fly gives you 1 AR; a sac fly where two runners move up gives you 2; a single where all the runners move up is 3; a two-run single 4; a two-run double 5; a bases-clearing double 6.  6 is the largest number of AR you can get in any one hit: clearing the bases.

            This gives you a very good measure of how valuable a player’s hits are.  Added with total bases (TB), this gives you a very good idea of how much offensive production is actually in one’s hits.  A two-run single, with AR and TB combined, is more important than a solo home run.  And that would be measured.  Indeed, the greater importance of all hits with men on base becomes visible with this statistic.

            This statistic also measures the usefulness of a player’s outs.  A sacrifice bunt is accounted for in our statistics.  But a well-placed ground ball, which can be just as valuable, or a deep fly ball, is not.  This statistic accounts for all that.

            We can also give players a negative value when baserunners are erased because of their hits.  Grounding into a double play with a man on first would give you a -1 in your AR.

Wouldn’t it be interesting for MLB or Elias to pick up this statistic?  Wouldn’t it be interesting to find out which players in the major league move runners up best?  There may be some surprises: perhaps those players who don’t quite have the gaudy statistics but everyone has always been saying are truly valuable – the number two hitters who move runners over, the clutch hitter who always comes through with men on base – will

finally get some recognition for their success in the fundamental task in baseball: advancing runners.

            While we’re at it, we may as well take the next step.  Someone will say, “this statistic is not pure, because it favors batters who come up with men on base.”  If you never get an at-bat with a man on base, your SSP will be .000, even if you hit a home run every time you come up.  Fair enough.  We can also measure Advancing Runners Effectiveness (ARE).  I presume we have computers powerful enough to do this.

            Every at-bat would have to be assigned its maximum value based on the number of bases which a batter could advance the other runners.  Again, the maximum is 6 (bases loaded).  A runner on third means the maximum value is 1 (you can only advance him one base).  A runner on first has a maximum value of 3.  You can then keep track of Potential Advanced Runners (PAR).  Divide PAR by AR, and you have your Advancing Runners Effectiveness.

            Let me give you an example.  Take two hitters, A and B, each with four at bats.  This is what they do: 

 

A: bases loaded, single, all advance one base: 3 AR / 6 PAR

     man on 2nd, strikeout:                                     0 AR / 2 PAR

     man on 1st, GIDP:                                          -1 AR / 3 PAR

     bases loaded, struck out                                0 AR / 6 PAR

 

B: man on 1st, walked:                            1 AR / 3 PAR

     man on 2nd, grounded, out, runner advances 1 AR / 2 PAR

     man on 3rd, run-scoring single                         1 AR / 1 PAR

     man on 1st, sac bunt                           1 AR / 3 PAR

 

Player A, in your boxscore, looked to have had an all right game: after all, he did have a hit and an RBI.  But in terms of advancing runners, he was only 2 for 17.  He could have done much more for his team that day.  Player B had an RBI too, but was much more useful in general: 4 for 9.  I will note that this statistic is particularly useful because it also distinguishes between which bases you advance runners: when you advance a runner from first to second, you get a 1 for 3 (.333), but when you advance a runner from third to home, you get a 1 for 1 (1.000). 

Galilaean Idol

28-Sep-08

Galilaean Idol: The Search for the Mother of God

 

            In 5 B.C., in accordance with the long-range plan, the chief executive officer of heaven, God, convened a meeting of heaven’s board of trustees. 

            “As you know, gentleangels,” God said, “we’re running out of years before Christ, and it’s time to set in motion the pre-production of our next big show, the Incarnation.  The first thing to do is set a venue.  Now you know my preference, but I’m going to commission a committee to study the proper place for man’s salvation to take place.  Then, after we have reconvened, heard the report of the committee, and selected our venue, by 2 B.C. we need to begin casting calls for the Mother of God.  Now I’m very sensitive about who it should be, so I want the process to be very thorough.  That’s why we’re starting so early.”

            The commission was selected, and it reported back to God that Jerusalem seemed to be the best place.  There was some grumbling on the board that the result had been fixed, but Jerusalem was unanimously voted “the Future Scene of Man’s Redemption.”  Delegates were sent to the city, and the city council unanimously adopted a resolution to adopt the new motto and advertising campaign, “Catch the Messianic Spirit: Jerusalem 2 B.C.: Future Scene of Man’s Redemption, brought to you by the Jerusalem City Council.”

            Soon a casting call went out through all Judea and Galilaea and Samaria, for a Mother of God.  Its text was as follows:

 

ISO Mother of God.  No Experience Necessary.  Advanced Degree a +. Should be willing to bear and raise a son, prepare him for messianic role.  Interested parties provide letters of reference from at least three (3) religious leaders, demo tape of scripture recitations, recent photo.  Due to scriptural constraints, WE ARE ONLY ACCEPTING APPLICATIONS FROM VIRGINS AT THIS TIME.

 

Word swept through the land that redemption was at hand.  Young women slept out overnight to be the first to receive applications, and families hired consultants to help their daughters put together the best possible portfolio.  New companies sprouted up to satisfy the demand for scripture recitation classes, and plastic surgeons had to work overtime carving up noses into the newly fashionable Hellenistic style.  Rabbis received innumerable invitations to dinner, and on the way out were slapped with the dreaded recommendation form.  The papers reported that all the Holy Land was in the grip of “Mother of God Fever.” 

After reading through tens of thousands of applications, the selection committee sent out its first thousand invitations, asking the first group of young women to assemble at Eleutheropolis.

As Michael and Raphael, who were in charge of the committee, arrived at the casting call, they were shocked to find the facility mobbed.  They had told the contestants to arrive at staggered times, but all had come as early as they could, so as not to lose any competitive advantage.  As the archangels walked past the roped-off groups of young women, the women pushed to the edge of the rope, shouting strange phrases which would be remembered, batting their eyelashes at the archangels, one young girl even opened her robe to reveal her pendulous breasts, which “could satisfy a young Messiah.”  Michael and Raphael were glad to duck into the building, to be free of the noise and racket.

“This is going to be a long process,” Raphael said.

“We’ll have to steel ourselves for it, that’s all,” Michael said.  “What I want to know is how we ended up with this job.  What the heaven is Gabriel doing?”

“Hey look, it doesn’t make any sense to complain,” Raphael said.  “It’s crystal clear.  God made me.  God asks me to do something, I do it.  I was just observing that it will be a long process.”

From the first Eleutheropolis session, they came up with forty who would be invited to the next round.  They then set out for Jerusalem, which was even more mobbed, as many people had shown up who were not even invited, who had been disqualified already.  Police had to be brought in to control the crowd.  “Thousands vie for place in spiritual history of human race,” the papers reported.  Again forty were selected to appear before the committee again later for an even more rigorous test of their fitness to bear the son of God.

After Jerusalem the angels headed for Samaria, and by this time there were only twelve months left before the expected event.  “God wants us to select this woman by June, as he says he will only need six months for the gestation,” Michael said.

“Really?” Raphael said.  “I thought the original plan was for the full nine.”

“I’m not going to reason it out,” Michael replied.  “Those are the instructions, and I’m sticking to them.”

The pair arrived in Caesarea Philippi for the last of the four regional casting calls in March.  They were surprised to find that the situation was worst of all there.  Some leading candidates had been kidnapped by rival gangs which hoped to gain political power through a family tie with God.  Young women were surrounded by bodyguards and thugs.  Since it was the last general casting call, people who had been rejected in previous calls came, thinking it was their last chance.  Rejected girls bought the places of girls who had been invited, and girls who had been invited bribed other girls to stay home.  The streets of Caesarea Philippi were crawling with people, chanting for their favorite candidates.  The crowds threatened the archangels as they passed to the audience hall.

“I should just take out my sword right now and mow them all down!” Michael exclaimed with his usual hot temper.

“Now, now,” Raphael admonished, “everyone in heaven admits we have a problem here on earth.  We’re trying to do something about it right now.  We’re going to teach these people the values of meekness, self-sacrifice, humility, and love.”

“Well, you tell me how the heaven God is going to do this by having a giant competition.  It brings out the worst in people.  Everyone here is out to glorify themselves, not God.”

“Michael, you’re not being like yourself.  We have our instructions, let’s follow them.”

“I tell you, I liked the first part of the long-range plan.  We’d tell these folks that there was going to be a big prophet-roast for Baal, and I’d show up and just mow ‘em down.  Now that was the old-time religion.”

“Well, I’m afraid the first part of the long-range plan is done.  We have our instructions, let’s get to work.”

And at that moment up in heaven God nodded to Gabriel, who came streaming down from heaven.  It was indeed as if all Galilee had been emptied into Caesarea Philippi.  As Gabriel passed through the towns of Galilee, he found them mostly empty, save for a few old people who could not make the journey, and some businessmen who would not leave their businesses, and these people came up to him as he passed through the streets, asking him if he had any news about “this Mother of God business.”  He told them that if they waited patiently, he was sure they would hear.  And on his journey he peered in to the windows, and saw the scattered families and individuals who prayed not for greater honors, but to be worthy of those they had already received.  And in the town of Nazareth he came to the house of Joachim, whose daughter was the only young virgin left in the entire town.  And he came into her room as she read the verse, “Magnificat anima mea Dominum,” and knelt before her.

“Hail, Mary,” he spoke softly, “full of grace; the Lord is with thee!”

 

 

Put Strategy Into Playoff Matchups

24-Sep-08

Several people have complained about how the wildcard has diminished the importance of baseball’s regular season. More often than not, at least one wildcard team has made it to the World Series, often doing better than the team that beat them out for the division title.  Given one badly timed three-game losing streak (or even just a three out of five losing streak) a team that wins a hundred and ten games over the regular season can be knocked out very quickly by an eighty-three win team.

I have a proposal to improve the situation, and one that will add some spice to the playoffs. It will make the team with the best record that much harder to beat. Give the team with the best record the privilege of playing the team of their choice in the first round. That is the reward for dominating the regular season: the chance to choose one’s own path through the playoffs.

First of all, can you imagine how much fun this would be? For the last month of the season, every radio talk show would be alive with various strategies for getting through the playoffs. What team do you want to face in a five-game series? What team in a seven-game series? How did the season series go with each of the contending teams? What pitchers give what lineups trouble? Baseball is a game of strategy, and this would make the playoffs seem more like baseball: a series of controversial but exciting choices which everyone can have an opinion on.

I think there is no doubt that this would give an advantage to the team with the best record. There have been plenty of instances where a team like the Yankees (which during their playoff run often had the best record) might have gone further in the playoffs if they could play anyone but the Angels. Similarly, the Braves might have been able to choose to play the Mets, and might have spared themselves some first-round exits. On the other hand, this would definitely give juice to these series, because the underdog will really want to beat the team that considered them an easy win.

When the team with the better record picks their series and wins, the radio talk shows will be alive with praise for the manager. If they lose, there will be plenty of discussion of who he should have chosen to play instead.

For teams that are securely in command of their divisions, playing for the best record would be a legitimate prize at the end of the year. It might be the difference between facing those two hot pitchers on the hottest team in baseball or the team that limped into the playoffs.

There would be some practical problems – you might have to submit your list of preferred teams by a certain date, for instance, so that Major League Baseball could plan the series out in advance. But it could be pretty close to the end of the season, as it often happens that the series are not set until the last day of the season.

It would be an ideal way to make the regular season more important, and the playoffs even more exciting. How about it, MLB?

Magna Graecia

24-Sep-08
The Tomb of Pythagoras at Metapontum.

The Tomb of Pythagoras at Metapontum.

Steinbeck in Salinas.

24-Sep-08

Upon a wall in the National Steinbeck Center is a map of the Salinas valley, over which are inscribed the following words of the author: “… the valley I have known and never loved.”  When presented thus with this map, the first thing that strikes you is the simple fact that Steinbeck did, in fact, write about the Salinas valley a tremendous amount, more than you would have thought.  Of course the autobiographical East of Eden is about Salinas, where Steinbeck’s family lived and where he grew up; but Of Mice and Men is set in Soledad, the next town over; Tortilla Flat is set one town over from Soledad; The Red Pony takes place in the valley; Cannery Row and Sweet Thursday are set in Monterey, at the mouth of the valley, where The Log from the Sea of Cortez begins.  Travels with Charlie significantly passes through.  The Grapes of Wrath is more broadly Californian, but really its farms are the valley’s farms.  It is truly a literary monument: Steinbeck wrote, as he intended, a kind of history of the Salinas River valley up to his day.  And his monument is all the more convincing for being about a real place (here we see one of Faulkner’s vices).

But after the remarkable geographic centeredness of Steinbeck’s work (and more specifically the more important part of his work), the second revelation of that quotation is the amazing statement that he knew the valley but did not love it.  Most readers sense that there is something unusual about Steinbeck.  He is still very widely known, and almost all his books are in print and in paperback.  He is considered literary yet his writing is simple enough to be popular.  His books are widely favored in schools.  Part of their attraction for educators is their crisp simplicity of diction and plot – oftentimes reaching fable-like simplicity.  Yet he is not really a children’s favorite – you are not likely to find a twelve-year-old nerdy child absorbed in a Steinbeck book over summer break.  Nor is he really a favorite among sophisticates – it is rare to hear him mentioned among the great titans of literature.  Steinbeck wrote many American novels, and yet most people believe that “the great American novel” is still unwritten.  I believe this is because of Steinbeck’s unusual coldness in his purpose, his dutiful, loveless prose.

If you look closely at pictures of Steinbeck, you can see what he himself confessed.  There he is at a cocktail party with some beautiful woman – and not loving it.  There he is as a war correspondent in Italy – and not loving it.  There he is accepting his Nobel Prize for Literature – and not loving it.  When he wrote Travels with Charlie, he was living out an American’s dream, the cross-country trip, and he did it in style, in a very nice camper, and with theoretically unlimited time on his hands.  But the first thing you notice about the book is how little he enjoys it.  When I first read it, I ascribed it to his age – he was too old to tackle a continent.  But it is in fact a permanent element in his writing.

This is probably the reason why his characters almost seem like barnyard animals, with their own battles and passions and personalities, but with little depth.  Steinbeck did not seem to love any of them.  Does he love Lenny?  Or George?  Or Curly?  Or Carlson?  Or the Joads?  He may want them to be taken care of – the way one might pass animal-protection legislation – and he may boast of their humanity, but all his characters have a tendency to flatness.  They are not individuals, they are parts of an ecosystem, like animals, and they play a predictable role based on their ecological niche.  There are not too many surprises in Steinbeck novels: strong, silent men are strong and silent; vain men are vain; hardworking men work hard; flirty women flirt.  He doesn’t love any of them, and so to him they are like interchangeable parts in a statistically constant society.  A ranch is twenty percent hardworking men, ten percent vain men, thirty percent vagabonds, etc.

Steinbeck seems to have worked from a sense of duty – perhaps under the guidance of his first wife, Carol.  It was apparently she who directed him to write about California, which seems to have been good advice.  And so he dutifully recorded it, as a record for his children and for posterity.  And we are grateful for it.  He probably did as much as a man can do without great love – but I wish, in my heart, that he had found the thing he loved, and wrote from there, even at the cost of his greatness.  For in the end he will probably be replaced by those writers who have not only a knowledge of but a love for California.

A stroll from the Steinbeck center over to the house where he grew up perhaps explains some of Steinbeck’s coldness to his native place.  He was fated to be born in California at the beginning of the twentieth century.  A hundred years later, the short walk from Main Street to his house and you may not hear Steinbeck’s language in the streets – downtown Salinas has become heavily Hispanic.  There is a cut-price liquor store a few doors down from his birthplace, and a convenience grocery with beer pictures of half-naked women and nudy magazines.  The buildings do not look the same as the pictures in the museum – most of the buildings have been torn down, and replaced by concrete boxes or by parking lots.  Main Street is making a comeback (in part due to the Steinbeck Center, in part due to a giant “Maya Cinemas” multiplex which was disgorging its mostly Latino crowd when I walked past).  The culture Steinbeck grew up with most certainly does not exist now, and it had changed radically within his lifetime.  He knew a California before the automobile – a California of city centers and Masonic lodges, of Temperance Unions and women starting public libraries.  All of the buildings which anyone today would be tempted to call beautiful, indeed all the buildings which make an attempt to be beautiful, were built during Steinbeck’s boyhood or before.  Most of those have been lost, and the replacements are universally ugly.  The parking lots, which have blotted out much of the old city, are of course hopelessly ugly.  If Steinbeck started out with any sentimentality, the continual destruction of his native place must have been very difficult for him.

Part of the problem may have been his lack of religion.  There is no doubt that Steinbeck understood the basic mystical position, that all things are one.  In his words:

One merges into another, groups melt into ecological groups until the time when what we know as life meets and enters what we think of as non-life: barnacle and rock, rock and earth, earth and tree, tree and rain and air.  And the units nestle into the whole and are inseparable from it.  Then one can come back to the microscope and the tide pool and the aquarium.  But the little animals are found to be changed, no longer set apart and alone.  And it is a strange thing that most of the feeling we call religious, most of the mystical outcrying which is one of the most prized and used and desired reactions of our species, is really the understanding and the attempt to say that man is related to the whole thing, related inextricably to all reality, known and unknowable.  This is a simple thing to say, but the profound feeling of it made a Jesus, a St. Augustine, a St. Francis, a Roger Bacon, a Charles Darwin, and an Einstein.  Each of them in his own tempo and with his own voice discovered and reaffirmed with astonishment the knowledge that all things are one thing and that one thing is all things. [from The Log of the Sea of Cortez]

In religious terms this unity is presupposed by the term “creation,” which is the sum of all things, from rocks to trees to humans.  But Steinbeck writes about this with his own personal detachment, as if he himself were not one with it – it is but “one of the desired reactions of our species,” “a strange thing,” and so forth.  Steinbeck sees the content of the mystic’s knowledge, but he has a lab-specimen version of it, in formaldehyde.  The mystic’s understanding of the word “creation” is that it represents the work of a lover, the kiss of a lover for his beloved.  The only time Steinbeck seems to feel this is when he describes alcohol, and while Steinbeck proclaims the goodness of this gift of Bacchus, it is obvious enough that alcohol was in his life (as it is in most lives) a sad and a desperate joy.  Drunkenness is not usually in a society or in a man a sign of joyousness.

Something of the sadness of this irreligious life is reflected in the man’s tomb.  Often a tomb is merely the reflection of the buried’s surviving relatives, but Steinbeck lived until he was sixty-six and he had been famous for thirty years.  His tomb is a statement.  He was cremated, and his ashes are buried in his mother’s family plot in Salinas, with his parents, grandparents, and sister.  He has a plaque, which says, “John Steinbeck.  1902-1968,” and that is all.  The cemetery is non-denominational, and is called “The Garden of Memories,” an implicit acknowledgement that to the people who named it the whole idea of a cemetery is not essentially religious, and maybe even sentimental and outdated.  That is certainly the feeling one gets when one looks at Steinbeck’s tomb; the man seems sullen and resentful that he even has to go through the bother of being buried and marked.  He did it, of course; but he did not love it.